AUSTIN,December11FitchRatingsaffirmsthe'AAA'ratingonthefollowingrevenuebondsofCary,NorthCarolina:
--Approximately$129millioncombinedenterprisesystemrevenuebondsseries2007and2013.
TheRatingOutlookisStable.
SECURITY
Thebondsaresecuredbyapledgeofandfirstlienonnetrevenuesofthetown'scombinedwaterandsewersystem.Theseries2007bondsarealsosecuredbyadebtservicereservefundprovidedbyasuretypolicy,equaltoaverageannualdebtservice.Adebtservicereservewasnotfundedfortheseries2013bonds.
KEYRATINGDRIVERS
ROBUSTLIQUIDITYANDHEALTHYCOVERAGE:Liquidityremainsveryhighat3xthe'AAA'medianfordayscashonhand.All-indebtservicecoveragehasaveragedaverysolid2.7xoverthelastfiveyears,higherthanthe2.5x'AAA'ratingcategorymedian.However,thesystem'sgrowingdebtcarryingcostsareexpectedtobegintopressureall-inDSC.
LARGEDEBTBURDEN:Debtratioshavegrownconsiderablyoverthelasttwoyearsandarenowwellabovethe'AAA'ratinglevelduetonecessarysystemexpansiontoaddressdischargerequirements.
STRONGMANAGEMENT:Thetownbenefitsfromtalentedfinanceandutilitymanagementteamsthatpracticeconservativebudgetingandlong-rangeplanning.
AMPLERATEFLEXIBILITY:Overthelastseveralyearsmanagementhasinstitutedaseriesofrateincreases,particularlyonthesewerside,tofundconstructionofathirdtreatmentplant.Additionalmodestannualrateincreasesanticipated.UserchargesremainwellbelowFitch'saffordabilitythresholddespitetherecenthikesandfutureplannedadjustments.
HEALTHYECONOMICBASE:Theserviceareaeconomyisstrong,characterizedbyhighwealthlevelsandlowunemployment.Fitchbelievestheserviceterritoryhaslong-termpotentialforcontinuedgrowthanddevelopmentgivenitslocationintheRaleigh-Durhammetropolitanarea.
RATINGSENSITIVITIES
DETERIORATIONOFFINANCIALPOSITION:Failuretopreservethesystem'sstrongfinancialprofiledespitesignificantongoingcapitalpressuresandincreasingdebtloadcouldpressuretherating.Inparticular,healthyliquidityandrobustall-inDSCwillbekeytosupportingthe'AAA'ratinggiventhegrowingdebtburden.
CREDITPROFILE
TheTownofCarybondsrated'AAA'byFitch)provideswaterandsewerservicetoanareawithapproximately55,000customersinandaroundthecommunitiesofCaryandMorrisvilleincentralNorthCarolina,withaserviceareapopulationestimatedofapproximately173,000.CaryalsoprovidesutilityservicetotheRaleigh-DurhamAirport.
COMPLETEDANDPLANNEDEXPANSIONPROVIDEAMPLECAPACITY
Caryrecentlycompletedconstructiononathirdwastewatertreatmentfacility,theWesternWakeRegionalWastewaterManagementFacility.Theexpansionbringstotalwastewatertreatmentcapacitytojustover42milliongallonsperday,whichwillextendtotalsystemcapacityuntilatleast2060.ThefacilitywasbuiltincooperationwithApexandwasnecessarytomeetCary'sobligationtobegindischargingreclaimedwaterbacktotheCapeFearwaterbasin,thebasinfromwhichitdrawsitswatersupply.
WatersupplyisdrawnfromJordanLake.Evenwiththeservicearea'srecentgrowth,thissupplystillprovidesalmosttwicethesystem'saveragewaterdemand.TreatmentisprovidedbytheCary/Apexwatertreatmentplant.Caryowns77%ofthetreatmentplantandoperatesthefacility.Expansionofthecurrenttreatmentplantisontrackforcompletionby2016andwillincreasecapacityto56mgdfrom40mgd.Aspartofthetown'slongtermplanning,CaryisrequestingadditionalwaterallocationsfromJordanLake,enoughtomeetdemanduntil2045.
AMPLERATEFLEXIBILITYREMAINS
Debtlevelshaveincreasedsignificantlyandareforecasttocontinuetoclimbduetosystemcapitalexpansion,butCaryhasbeenphasinginrateincreasestosupporttheplannedcapitalspending.Additionalannualratehikesaveragingapproximately4%areanticipatedthroughfiscal2019.Mostrecentlymanagementhasadjusteditsvolumetricrates,althoughthetownnowanticipatesfutureadjustmentswillprimarilyincreasethefixedbaserate.Despitesizablepastincreasesuserchargesremainaffordablewithacombinedbillat1.1%ofmedianhouseholdincome.ThisamountiswellbelowFitch'saffordabilitythresholdof2%ofMHIandprovidesthesystemwithamplerateflexibilitygoingforward.
STRONGFINANCIALMANAGEMENTANDRESULTS
Financialperformanceremainsrobustbutisanticipatedtosoftenasadditionaldebtisabsorbedintothesystem'scostsstructure.DSConallsystem-relateddebthasaveraged2.7xforthelastfivefiscalyears.Auditedresultsforfiscal2014pointtoadropinDSCto2.1xbutcoveragewasalsoimpactedbytheinclusionofaone-time$5millionadditionaloperatingexpense.Fitch'sanalysisfocusesonall-inDSCgiventhecity'sintentandpracticetorepayutility-relatedGObondsfromwaterandsewernetrevenues,althoughtherevenuesarenotlegallypledged.
Financialmanagementisverystrong,asevidencedbyhealthyliquidity,stringentfiscalpoliciesandconservativebudgeting.Managementprovidedprojectionswhichonlytakeintoaccountrecurringrevenuesandshowcoverageofallsystemdebtdroppingto1.5xin2015beforereboundingto1.9xby2019.FitchexpectsactualDSCtooutpacetheseprojectionswiththeinclusionofsystemimpactfees,whichhaveaverage20%ofoperatingrevenuessincefiscal2009.Theutility'soperatingfundcashpositionofover$63millionattheendoffiscal2014equatestoastrong509daysofcash.Includingthesystem'ssubstantialunrestrictedfundsdedicatedtocapital,reservestotaledover$200million,equaltoalmost1,700daysofcash.
CAPITALNEEDSADDTODEBTBURDEN
WiththecompletionoftheWesternWakeFacilitythefocusofthecapitalimprovementplanshiftstotheexpansionofthewatertreatmentplantscheduledforfiscals2014-2016.Thefiscal2015-2019CIPtotalsjustover$220millionwithapproximately60%oftheCIPtobedebtfinanced.Projectsslatedfromfiscals2018-2019areestimatedtocost$88millionandfocusonadditionalsystemexpansionwhichcouldpotentiallybedeferreddependingondemandneeds.
InJanuary2014,thetownissuedjustover$40millioninsystem-supportedGOdebtandisplanninganotherapproximately$40millionrevenuebondissuanceinearly2015tofundthewatertreatmentexpansionproject.Debttonetplanthasgrownfromamoderate25%infiscal2011to40%infiscal2014.Also,theadditionalleveraginghasincreasedthedebtpercustomerlevelsto$2,237forfiscal2013,andfuturedebt,ifissuedascurrentlyplanned,willpushdebtpercustomerratiotoover$3,000by2018-2.8xthe'AAA'median.TheprojectedelevateddebtlevelsareacreditconcernandFitchbelievesitwillbenecessaryforthetowntomaintainstrongfinancialmetrics,includinghealthyDSCandrobustliquidity,tooffsettherisingdebtburdenandsupportthe'AAA'rating.
DYNAMICECONOMICSERVICEAREA
Thetown'seconomybenefitsfromastrongcommercialpresencewithinthetown'slimits,includingSASInstitute,Inc.,theworld'slargestprivatelyheldsoftwarecompany.TheregionaleconomyisanchoredbynearbyRaleigh,thestatecapital,andResearchTrianglePark.
Severalcollegesanduniversities,aswellasmajorhealthcarefacilities,addbreadthtotheareaemploymentbase.Wealthlevelsarehighascomparedtostateandnationallevelsreflectingthehighlyspecializednatureofthetown'semploymentbase.ThetownunemploymentasofSeptember2014islowat3.9%asofSeptember,wellbelowthestateandnationandhasremainedlowevenduringrecessionaryyears,neverclimbingabove6.5%.Employmentlevelshavealsonotseenadeclinesince2005.Theinpidualpovertyrateofjust6.3%isalsoverylowcomparedtothestateandthenation.
Contact:
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TeriWenck,CPA
AssociateDirector
+1-512-215-3742
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SecondaryAnalyst
AndrewDeStefano
Director
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DougScott
ManagingDirector
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Additionalinformationisavailableat''.
InadditiontothesourcesofinformationidentifiedinFitch'sU.S.MunicipalRevenue-SupportedRatingCriteria,thisactionwasadditionallyinformedbyinformationfromCreditscope.
ApplicableCriteriaandRelatedResearch:
--'Revenue-SupportedRatingCriteria';
--'U.S.WaterandSewerRevenueBondRatingCriteria';
--'2015WaterandSewerMedians';
--'2015SectorOutlook:WaterandSewer'.
ApplicableCriteriaandRelatedResearch:
Revenue-SupportedRatingCriteria
U.S.WaterandSewerRevenueBondRatingCriteria
2015WaterandSewerMedians
2015Outlook:WaterandSewerSector
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